{"product_id":"what-are-the-chances-of-that-how-to-think-about-uncertainty-hardcover","title":"What Are the Chances of That?: How to Think about Uncertainty - Hardcover","description":"\u003cp\u003eby \u003cb\u003eAndrew C. a. Elliott\u003c\/b\u003e (Author)\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eChance fills every day of our lives and affects every decision we make.\u003c\/strong\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e Yet, for something woven so closely into the fabric of our being, we are not very good at thinking about uncertainty and risk. In this lively and engaging book, Andrew C. A. Elliott asks why this is so. He picks at the threads and, in showing how our world is built on probability rather than certainty, he identifies five obstacles to thinking about uncertainty that confuse us time after time. \u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003eElliott takes us into the casino, but this is not an invitation to gamble. He looks at financial markets, but this is not a guide to investment. There's discussion of health, but this is not a medical book. He touches on genetics and evolution, and music-making, and writing, because chance is at work there too. Entering many different fields, \u003cem\u003eWhat are the Chances of That?\u003c\/em\u003e is always following the trail of chance and randomness. One purpose of the book is to go cross-country, to show that there are connected ways of thinking that disrespect boundaries and cut across the domains of finance, and gambling, and genetics, and public health, and creativity. Through it, one visits the vantage points that give a broad view of the landscape and sees how these different areas of life and knowledge are connected - through chance. \u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cem\u003eWhat are the Chances of That?\u003c\/em\u003e discusses chance and the importance of understanding how it affects our lives. It goes beyond a mathematical approach to the subject, showing how our thinking about chance and uncertainty has been shaped by history and culture, and only relatively recently by the mathematical theory of probability. In considering how we think about uncertainty, Elliott proposes five \"dualities\" that encapsulate many of the ambiguities that arise.\u003cbr\u003e\u003ch3\u003eAuthor Biography\u003c\/h3\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAndrew Elliott \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003eAndrew Elliott cares about numbers and how people think about them. Coming from a career in financial systems, he understands the importance of fluent thinking about the impact of numbers in our lives. In 2016, unsettled by the lack of practical numeracy in public debate and in the media, he created\u003cbr\u003ea website and wrote the book \u003cem\u003eIs That a Big Number?\u003c\/em\u003e to help readers answer that question. His next book \u003cem\u003eWhat are the Chances of That?\u003c\/em\u003e continues that project by looking at some typically small numbers and probabilities.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eNumber of Pages:\u003c\/strong\u003e 384\u003c\/div\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eDimensions:\u003c\/strong\u003e 0.91 x 9.29 x 6.54 IN\u003c\/div\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003ePublication Date:\u003c\/strong\u003e October 25, 2021\u003c\/div\u003e","brand":"Books by splitShops","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47463810924722,"sku":"9780198869023","price":70.09,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0770\/3891\/1666\/files\/ed0acdaa30ed6423063a5dbe355edb1f.webp?v=1778994629","url":"https:\/\/box.dadyminds.org\/products\/what-are-the-chances-of-that-how-to-think-about-uncertainty-hardcover","provider":"DADYMINDS BOX","version":"1.0","type":"link"}